"In physics, it takes three laws to Explain 99% of the data; in finance, it takes more than 99 laws to explain about 3%". According to an article [1] in HBR, the source of this statement from MIT finance professor Andrew Lo. He followed up by saying: "Economists consequently suffer from physics envy".
What does it mean if Lo's statement is true ? In my experience I believe he is, and I see two alternatives:
(1) Economics and its mental world is not at all as amendable to the power of mathematics as physics in the physical world. This is the conclusion in [1].
(2) Economics is simply too immature, and totally new approaches to its understanding is needed in order to build predictive models. If this is the case, the emergence of such a theory will be through the collaboration from other fields.
According to alt. (2), Occam's Razor will force a new and radically simpler quantitative economic theory with greater accuracy. It might be you who finds this theory?
Friday, October 26, 2007
Occam's Razor Shows the Immature State of Quantitative Economics
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