Monday, March 28, 2011

Framing the future from the current body of knowledge

Michio Kaku gives below some interesting predictions of the year 2100 based on his knowledge from current science.



I think he is right about several points:
  • Jobs that can be repeated will be automated and eliminated. Jobs that require creativity and are not repetible like construction or policemen will continue to prosper. Jobs of middlemen will be eliminated except for middlemen that bring value into the equation.
  • Aging processes will be greatly stalled.
  • Computing will be embedded in our lives based on augmented reality.
Curious on more? Take a look at his latest book on Amazon:

http://www.amazon.com/Physics-Future-Science-Shape-Destiny/dp/0385530803/ref=reg_hu-rd_dp_img_T2

Sunday, August 8, 2010

What is as simple as possible?

One of the most celebrated principles of our time is the concept of simplicity. But how do you obtain simplicity, and when do you know a solution the simplest possible?

Einstein is famously been quoted to have said "A solution to a problem should be as simple as possible, but no simpler". In the same lines Leonardo da Vinci is reported to have said "Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication."


Great! I can hear what you are saying, but what does that mean?

How do you obtain simplicity? On this question - ideas have been widespread.

A good source to understand what we are looking for are The Laws of Simplicity . A set of 10 laws that partially describe how to obtain simplicity, partially describe how you can perceive simplicity and partially state that some things cannot be made simple. A good reference for reflection, but from my point of view - not simple enough!

The site The Simplicist describes two approahes to achieve simplicity (1) Simplicity by Reduction and (2) Simplicity of design. The titles are rather self explaining, but read the source to see the descriptions. This site is really simple so they are living up to their ideal, but is it maybe too simple? Anyhow, the two approaches may come in handy, so lets keep them in mind.


When is a solution the simplest possible?
This is the hard question. I use a three step solution to this. Might work for you as well?

1. I believe you must base it on the possible known solutions to a problem. There will be solutions out there that may be found in the future, but simplest possible does not include the unknown by definition (the unknown is not possible at this point in time...).

Ex: Example could be that in 1850, the simplest solution to communicate a short message between Australia and England could be to send a postal mail by ocean traffic. Today it might be to send an SMS or just make a phone call?

2. Select the solution that based on key metrics (ie production time, money, energy needed) that you believe give the lowest value given lowest accepted value for some quality metrics/tests (ie defects, pollution, service calls etc ). This is based on the simplicity be design principle (2) above.

Ex: Our message could be sent by email instead of SMS, but would that be fast enough based on our expected response time from our receiver? We could also call instead to get the message over instead of sending and SMS, but would that be acceptable to the receiver. Would it be simple for him/her and take the little time it needed?

3. Once you select your solution, remove the least necessary part. Ask yourself will it still work given the quality metric/test. If the quality metric/test is still evaluated acceptable: Repeat and see if you can remove one more layer. This is based on the simplicity be reduction principle (1) above.

Ex: Say in our SMS communication. Can we remove the need to send multiple SMSs. Is it acceptable to only send one SMS with the message and require only one response? Maybe in some cases you can remove the response itself by saying that "if OK, no need for response. " That would assume that you really trust that the message was received (!), but still it proves the point of multiple possible reductions.

Try it! It works pretty well for me, and you get something that is pretty close to As simple as possible, but no simpler.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

The thrilling potential of SixthSense technology

Watching this video truly opens your mind of future interaction technology and gives you idea on how it will engage us in the near future. One think I especially liked was the way Mr. Mistry takes the living context you are in and bring new knowledge and insight to it. Simply Genious!

Watch and be amazed:
Pranav Mistry: The thrilling potential of SixthSense technology | Video on TED.com

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

The Power and Beauty of the Insightful Statistical Prediction

Hans Rosling [1] have for some years now inspired me and many others in his enchanting way of presenting statistics and future prediction. This talk, describing the rise of Asia as the dominant force in the world is his best ever:

http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_asia_s_rise_how_and_when.html

Look at his humble intro and natural approach throughout.
Look at the elegant way of using dynamics in the graph to prove the prediction.
Look at how well he matches and lifts his audience and their final reaction to his presentation.

Great people project great ideas.




[1] http://www.gapminder.org/

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Ten Greatest Thinkers of All Time

One of the great 20th century historians Will Durant, made in some of his assays rankings of what from his perspective were The Greatest Minds and Ideas of All Time. The essays are summed up in the book with the same name.



The book is a fun read, and is recommended as a reference for further study. Here I list his "Ten Greatest Thinkers of all Time". I think he is pretty close to a perfect list, but some of them might be more controversial than others - depending on your favorites:
  1. Confucius
  2. Plato
  3. Aristotle
  4. St. Thomas Aquinas
  5. Copernicus
  6. Sir Francis Bacon
  7. Sir Isaac Newton
  8. Voltaire
  9. Immanuel Kant
  10. Charles Darwin
The whole essay can be read under chapters published in a blog with entries for each person on the list here and here.

I'll come back with his list of The Greatest Ideas of all time.

Saturday, November 7, 2009

The Wonder and Paradoxes of Penrose's World Projections

I am a big fan of Roger Penrose, and his work is absolutely brilliant reads, if you have the time and energy to truly concentrate on his writings (for my favorites see [1] and [2]).

One model that is introduced in his work is the "the three worlds" and its relations, mysteries and paradox. The idea is depicted below (taken directly from [1] ) and describes how the physical world of existance is governed by the laws of the platonic/mathematical world, while the mental world is a part of our mental world, while our mental world is a small part of physical existance!



If you - as I do - see the model as relevant notice the following 3 mysteries and one paradox:
  1. Why is it that only a small part of the world of mathematics have relevance to the workings of the physical world?
  2. Why does the mental world come about in association with only certain physical structures - healthy, wakeful human brains.
  3. Why does only a small fraction of our mental minds concerns itself with mathematical/platonic truth?
  4. Finally the paradox - how come the three worlds appear to encompass the next one in its entirety?
In Penrose's own words : "Maybe the three worlds are not separate at all, but merely reflect, individually, aspects of a deeper truth about the world as a whole which we have little conception of at the present time.

Whatever your standpoint, the model is so powerful and creates a reflection and controversy it deserves to be called a great idea.


[1] The Emperor's New Mind: Concerning Computers, Minds, and the Laws of Physics (Popular Science)


[2] The Road to Reality : A Complete Guide to the Laws of the Universe

Saturday, October 3, 2009

Violence in Decline

In contrast to popular opinion, violence in the world has been continually declining since biblical times to the present. This continual decline correlates strongly with the gathering of societies in centralized states and democracies and in parallell to the increase in reason and technology. Especially, the 16th century - the start of the age of reason - marked the start of a unprecedented drop in violoence and rates of deaths in war.


See this great TED conference lecture by Steven Pinker for the whole inpiring story (see this to read the whole lecture). Enjoy!

According to Pinker, several theories have been noted to explain the effect. All of these have some truth to them I am sure:
  1. "Hobbes got it right" - In a state of anarchy, there's a constant temptation to invade your neighbors pre-emptively, before they invade you. A centralized state this is not such a great problem.
  2. "Life is cheap" - "When suffering & early death are common in one's own life, one has fewer compunctions about inflicting them on other. Technology and economic efficiency make life longer and more pleasant, one puts a higher value on life in general"
  3. "The non-zero sum game" - "..in certain circumstances, cooperation or non-violence can benefit both parties in an interaction, such as gains in trade"
  4. "The Expanding Circle" -Evolution bequeathed us with a sense of empathy. By default, we apply it only to friends & family, over history, the circle has expanded:
    -village->clan->tribe->nation->other races->both sexes.